Jointly organized by EPRN, MINECOFIN,BNR,...

FEBRUARY 23, 2023 @Parkinn Hotel-Kigali

1. Background
In 2022, Rwanda experienced one of the worst inflationary episodes since 1994. Headline consumer price inflation has picked up to 21.6 percent in December 2022 (y-o-y), from 1.9 percent in December 2021. Concurrently, producer price inflation accelerated to 12.3 percent in November 2022 (y-o-y), from 5.4 percent in November 2021. The pressures resulted from both domestic and external factors. This situation has triggered immediate policy attention to manage the emerging issues that are raising the costs of living and doing business and weighing on the country’s economic recovery efforts.

It is against this backdrop that the Economic Policy Research Network (EPRN) in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and GIZ organized a public-private policy dialogue (PPPD) to bring together monetary, fiscal, trade, and agriculture policy analysts and relevant members of the private sector to shed light on the patterns and drivers of inflation and discuss ongoing containment measures.

2. Purpose and specific objectives
In Rwanda, economic policy dialogue has been part and parcel of the policy decision-making processes. So far, rounds of evidence-based discussions, workshops and consultations with policymakers and development partners have contributed to developing and implementing some of the key policy measures to contain inflationary pressures.

The 2023 Macroeconomic Policy Dialogue extends the inflation policy consultations and discussions to influential/representative members of the private sector in Rwanda. The purpose of this public private policy dialogue (PPPD) is to facilitate discussions and engagement between the public and private sector and other relevant stakeholders (such as academia and think tanks, and civil society organizations) on recent price developments in Rwanda and current policy measures to curb inflation. The dialogue will take a participatory approach with presentations and facilitated plenary discussions to enable experience sharing and maximum participation from the participants.

3. Target audience
The Policy Dialogue was attended by around 70 participants, including :
- Economists and policy analysts (BNR, MINECOFIN, MINICOM, MINAGRI)
- Private Sector Federation (PSF)
- Farmers (coops/federations), agro-dealers and agro-processors
- Rwanda Association of Manufacturers (RAM)
- Traders and commodity (fuel and food) importers ;
- Hotels and restaurants
- Economic researchers and lecturers

4. Monetary Policy Decisions
The year 2022 brought about different global economic challenges, among those is the Russian-Ukraine war that exacerbated the increase of commodity prices and supply chain disruptions, which led to high inflation. On the domestic front, lower domestic food supply linked to the unfavorable weather conditions and higher prices of inputs led to an increase in food prices. These shocks explain the 13.9 percent headline inflation recorded in Rwanda in 2022. In reaction to these inflationary pressures, and to limit second round effects of these shocks, the National Bank of Rwanda started to increase the Central Bank Rate (CBR) in February 2022. In 2022, NBR increased the CBR by 200 basis points from 4.5% to 6.5%. Based on the recent global and domestic economic developments, indicating that inflationary pressures will remain in the coming months before coming down to the target band below 8% by the end of 2023, the CBR was recently raised by 50 additional basis points putting it at 7% on the 16th February 2023.

5. Some delivered Presentations

• Agriculture Policies for Mitigation of Inflation
• Trade policies and measures taken to curb inflationary pressures
• Rwanda Fiscal Update : Measures to contain negative socio-economic impacts of food inflation (FY2022-2023)
• Monetary Policies- MPC presentation during Policy Dialogue on Inflation